posts / Economics

The Enemy Within: Why Do New Year's Resolutions Always Fail?

phoue

14 min read --

Self-Control Secrets from Behavioral Economics: Win with ‘Design’ Instead of Willpower

Where are the ambitious plans you made on New Year’s Day for ‘working out three times a week’, ‘saving 500,000 won each month’, and ‘quitting smoking’? If they ended up as mere wishes, don’t be too hard on yourself. It may not be because your willpower is weak. In fact, there are two selves within us, and they are engaged in a fierce battle every day.

On one side is the wise ‘Planner’, who exercises, saves, and takes care of health for long-term happiness. On the other side is the impulsive ‘Doer’, who lies on the couch shouting, “Just today!” while binge-watching Netflix, shopping impulsively, and craving sweet desserts. The issue of self-control is essentially an eternal civil war between these two selves.

In this article, we will delve into our inner conflict through the lens of behavioral economics. Why does our ‘Planner’ consistently lose to the ‘Doer’? And to win this battle, what powerful ‘strategic weapons’ can we use, much like Ulysses who tied himself to the mast? We will explore specific and practical methods to overcome immediate temptations in all areas of our lives, including finance, health, and work, to create a better future self.


Part 1: The Two Voices Within: Planner vs. Doer

To understand why we engage in certain behaviors even when we know they are not in our best interest, we must first acknowledge our inner division. Traditional economics views us as rational single entities, but reality is different. To address this issue, Richard Thaler and Hersh Shefrin, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2017, proposed an innovative idea in 1981 that sees individuals as a single ‘organization’.

Within us coexist the ‘Planner’ who thinks of the future and the ‘Doer’ who enjoys the present.
Within us coexist the 'Planner' who thinks of the future and the 'Doer' who enjoys the present.

1.1. Principal and Agent: The Organization Within

Thaler and Shefrin likened our self-control issues to the ‘principal-agent problem’ in corporations. Just as a company’s owner (shareholder) desires long-term profits while the agent (CEO) in charge of actual management may focus more on short-term results, we also have two entities within us with different goals.

  • Planner: The ‘principal’ within us. This rational and future-oriented Planner aims to maximize happiness throughout life. It envisions the long-term health gained from consistent exercise, the stable retirement achieved through savings, and the diseases prevented by quitting smoking.
  • Doer: The ‘agent’ within us. This short-sighted Doer exists only in the moment, seeking only present pleasure and satisfaction. For the Doer, exercise is a hassle, saving is giving up, and quitting smoking is painful. The Doer is extremely vulnerable to immediate temptations.

Failures in self-control arise from the conflict between these two. The long-term plans are set by the Planner, but the key to actual behavior lies with the present-focused Doer. The Planner must use the resource of ‘willpower’ to control the Doer, but this willpower is not infinite. It is a taxing process that consumes mental energy, and when that energy is depleted, we easily succumb to temptation. This provides a structural explanation for why our resolutions often end up as ’three-day wonders’.

1.2. 100,000 won today vs. 110,000 won tomorrow: The Magic of Present Bias

So why is the Doer so short-sighted? The secret lies in the psychological phenomenon of ==hyperbolic discounting==. We do not evaluate time consistently. Particularly, we drastically undervalue the difference between ’now’ and the very near future. This leads to a ==present bias==, where we excessively prefer immediate rewards over larger future rewards.

Let’s pose a simple question.

  • Question 1: “Would you prefer to receive 100,000 won in 30 days or 110,000 won in 31 days?”
  • Question 2: “Would you prefer to receive 100,000 won today or 110,000 won tomorrow?”

Most people would rationally choose the latter in the first question, waiting an extra day for an additional 10,000 won. This is the voice of the Planner. However, in the second question, many people exhibit a ‘preference reversal’, shouting, “Just give me 100,000 won today!” At this moment, the future-oriented Planner is overwhelmed by the immediate temptation of the Doer. For the Doer, waiting just one day until ’tomorrow’ feels like an enormous pain.


Part 2: How to Save Future Me: The Commitment Strategy

Having diagnosed the inner conflict, we now need a prescription. The most powerful prescription offered by behavioral economics is the ==commitment strategy==.

2.1. Like Ulysses Tied to the Mast

The commitment strategy refers to any device that intentionally limits the current self’s choices or increases the costs of certain choices to prevent the future self from falling into temptation and making foolish decisions (akrasia).

The essence of the ‘Ulysses Pact’ is that the current self constrains the future self to overcome future temptations.
The essence of the 'Ulysses Pact' is that the current self constrains the future self to overcome future temptations.

A classic analogy that best illustrates this concept is the story of Ulysses from Greek mythology. Ulysses had to pass the island of the Sirens, who lured sailors to their deaths with their dangerously beautiful songs. He wanted to hear the Sirens’ song but knew he would not be able to resist the temptation and would jump into the sea. So, he made a pact to control his future self, who might fall into temptation, by instructing his rational ‘current self’ to create a commitment. He ordered his crew to plug their ears with wax and to tie him securely to the mast. As a result, he was able to continue his voyage safely while listening to the Sirens’ song.

This is the essence of the commitment device. It is the rational ‘Planner’ of the present controlling the impulsive ‘Doer’ of the future in advance. Effective commitments must be voluntarily adopted, and there should be clear negative consequences for failure.

2.2. How Does Commitment Work?

Commitment devices help us by leveraging our various psychological weaknesses.

  • Loss Aversion: We feel the pain of losing 100,000 won about twice as strongly as the joy of gaining 100,000 won. If we stake money on a goal to quit smoking and lose that money if we fail, the pain of losing money becomes a much stronger motivation than the joy of successfully quitting smoking.
  • Social Accountability: The moment we publicly declare, “I will start my diet today!” to friends, family, or on social media, the cost of failure becomes more than just not losing weight; it also includes the damage to our reputation as someone who ‘broke their promise’.
  • Sunk Costs: Imagine you bought a non-refundable one-year gym membership for a high price. The money already spent will likely motivate you to go to the gym at least once more.
  • Reducing/Increasing Friction: This is the simplest yet most powerful method. Make desirable behaviors easy (e.g., automatic savings transfers from salary) and undesirable behaviors difficult (e.g., deleting game apps from your smartphone).

2.3. Your Arsenal of Commitments

Commitment strategies exist in various forms. What weapons can you use to defeat your ‘Doer’?

Table 1: Types of Commitment Devices

Category Description (Mechanism and Principle) Examples
Monetary Commitment Imposing financial costs for failure or providing rewards for success. (Utilizing loss aversion, sunk cost fallacy) - Deposit Contract: Conditions that prevent money from being returned if goals are not met
- Commitment Apps (e.g., StickK): Losing a predetermined amount of money upon failure
- Prepayment: Annual gym memberships, etc.
- Withdrawal-restricted Savings: Restrictions on withdrawals until goals are achieved
Social Commitment Utilizing reputation, peer pressure, and the desire for social recognition. (Social norms, public accountability) - Public Declaration: Announcing goals on social media
- Accountability Partner: Designating a friend to monitor progress
- Study Groups/Team Sports: Creating a sense of obligation not to let peers down
Frictional/Physical Commitment Making bad behaviors difficult and good behaviors easy. (Effort heuristic, choice architecture) - Removing Temptations: Not keeping junk food at home, deleting distracting apps
- Temptation Bundling: Pairing enjoyable activities (listening to podcasts) with necessary tasks (exercising)
- Using Small Bowls: Limiting portion sizes
- Effort Agreements: Setting screen time limit apps

Part 3: Commitments in Reality: Insights from Success Stories

Commitment strategies are not just theories. They exert powerful influence in various aspects of our lives, changing the behavior of countless individuals.

3.1. Save Automatically: ‘Save More Tomorrow’

Finance is the easiest battlefield for the current ‘Doer’ to defeat the future ‘Planner’. To address this issue, Richard Thaler co-designed the brilliant program ‘Save More Tomorrow’.

‘Save More Tomorrow’ program makes saving easy by utilizing automation and loss aversion psychology.
'Save More Tomorrow' program makes saving easy by utilizing automation and loss aversion psychology.

The core of this program is simple. It automatically enrolls employees in retirement savings plans and increases their savings amount ‘automatically’ whenever their salary increases. Several powerful psychological tricks are hidden within this.

  1. Automatic Enrollment: People tend to resist changing the default setting. By making saving the default, doing nothing becomes equivalent to saving.
  2. Avoiding Loss Aversion: Since the savings amount increases after salary raises, people do not feel that their actual take-home pay is decreasing. Without the pain of ’loss’, there is less resistance.
  3. Preventing Procrastination: Once enrolled, everything is done automatically, eliminating the opportunity to say, “I’ll do it later.”

Since its introduction in the U.S., this program has dramatically increased the retirement savings of many individuals. The SEED account in the Philippines prevents withdrawals until goals are achieved, increasing the success rate of saving, and in Kenya, simply distributing locked savings boxes increased household health-related expenditures.

3.2. Bet Money and Reputation on Health: StickK & Beeminder

Health is the field where the battle between the Planner (a slim and healthy body) and the Doer (the desire to eat chicken right now) is most intense. Modern technology has created sophisticated weapons to assist the Planner in this war.

Case Study: StickK and Beeminder

  • StickK: This app, created by economists at Yale, requires users to enter into a ‘commitment contract’ for their goals. Users set penalties for failure, and that money can be sent to friends, charities, or even organizations they dislike (e.g., rival political parties, fan clubs of competing sports teams). Imagine your money going to a place you hate. The loss aversion psychology is maximized, making you want to achieve your goal at all costs.
  • Beeminder: This app visually represents the ‘yellow brick road’ to your goal based on data. If you stray from this path (e.g., failing to meet daily exercise goals), a pre-agreed penalty is automatically charged to your card. Immediate and harsh feedback for failure does not allow the Doer’s laziness to persist.

In practice, these apps have shown significant effects, increasing smoking cessation success rates by 40%. Prepaying a personal trainer or scheduling workout sessions with friends also follows the same principle.

3.3. Set Deadlines for Yourself: The War Against Procrastination

Procrastination is the biggest enemy in work or study. Behavioral economist Dan Ariely discovered an interesting method to tackle this issue through an experiment where he divided students into three groups for an assignment.

  • Group 1: No deadline (must submit by the end of the semester)
  • Group 2: The professor sets three evenly spaced deadlines
  • Group 3: Students set their own three deadlines for submission

What were the results? As expected, Group 1, which had no deadlines, performed the worst, while Group 2, with professor-set deadlines, performed the best. The most interesting was Group 3. Despite the risk of grade penalties, they voluntarily set earlier intermediate deadlines than the end of the semester. This was the current ‘Planner’ not trusting the future lazy ‘Doer’ and binding themselves. As a result, students who set their own deadlines achieved much higher grades than those without deadlines. Announcing to a boss or colleagues, “I will finish this by next Monday!” has the same effect.


Part 4: The Pitfalls of Commitment: The Dark Side of Self-Constraint

However, the commitment strategy is not a panacea. Sometimes, poorly designed commitments can be detrimental.

Poorly designed commitments can hinder flexibility and lead to counterproductive effects.
Poorly designed commitments can hinder flexibility and lead to counterproductive effects.

4.1. The Illusion of “I’ll Be Fine”

If commitments are so effective, why don’t more people use them? The biggest reason is that we underestimate our self-control problems. Most people are overly optimistic that their future selves will adhere to their current resolutions. Thus, they do not feel the need to constrain future choices.

4.2. Poorly Designed Commitments Leading to Failure

Sometimes, commitments can be harmful. In one study, 55% of participants in a commitment savings product aimed at low-income individuals failed to keep their contracts and lost money, resulting in worse outcomes than not making a commitment at all. The reason was that they did not fully grasp the severity of their self-control issues and set penalties that were too weak. The temptations of the Doer were much stronger than anticipated, while the penalties set by the Planner were too weak.

4.3. The Risks of Inflexible Commitments

  • Sunk Cost Trap: Once committed, even if circumstances change, there is a risk of sticking to an irrational plan due to the money or reputation already invested. For example, forcing oneself to attend a pre-paid exercise class despite feeling unwell.
  • Learned Helplessness: Over-reliance on external devices can hinder the development of internal self-regulation abilities. Commitment devices should be seen as training wheels, not something to depend on forever.

Considering these risks, commitment strategies must be carefully designed.

Table 2: Risks of Commitment Devices and Mitigation Strategies

Risk / Pitfall Description Mitigation Strategy
Low Adoption Rate/Participation Overconfidence in self-control leads to a lack of perceived need for commitment. - Set participation as the default through an opt-out method
- Design participation procedures to be as simple as possible
Harmful Noncompliance/Weak Commitments Choosing penalties that are ineffective leads to noncompliance and losses. - Recommend effective penalty levels
- Use flexible commitments that are adjustable or ‘revocable’
- Allow adjustments to commitments based on data
Rigidity/Sunk Cost Trap Becoming trapped in plans that are no longer optimal and adhering to them. - Include ’escape clauses’ for legitimate changes in circumstances
- Encourage periodic goal reviews
- Utilize less rigid ‘soft’ commitments (e.g., social commitments)
Learned Helplessness Over-dependence on external constraints hinders the development of internal self-regulation abilities. - Combine commitment devices with skill-building interventions (e.g., cognitive-behavioral therapy)
- Design devices that gradually fade away after habit formation

Part 5: Conclusion: It’s a Matter of ‘Design’, Not Willpower

Self-control is no longer a mysterious realm of willpower. It is an engineering problem of understanding the conflict between our inner Planner and Doer and creating a ‘well-designed path’ to curb the impulses of the Doer.

Suggestions for Implementation

To win this long civil war, what should we do?

Tips for Individuals:

  • Know Yourself: Am I a ’naive’ person who underestimates my impulsiveness? Am I a ‘partially sophisticated’ person who knows the problem but does not grasp its severity? Knowing yourself accurately is the starting point.
  • Break Down Goals: Instead of a massive goal like ’losing 10 kg’, break it down into small, achievable goals like ’eating salad for dinner tonight’. Small successes accumulate into significant achievements.
  • Combine Weapons: If you are sensitive to money, use monetary commitments; if you are sensitive to others’ opinions, use social commitments. Combining multiple weapons, like publicly declaring monetary commitments on social media, amplifies the effect.

Tips for Organizations and Policymakers:

  • Change Defaults: If you want employees or citizens to make better choices, make those choices the ‘default’. Nudging people towards good behavior, like automatic enrollment in retirement plans, is more effective than coercion.
  • Reduce Friction: Make the path to good behavior smooth and the path to bad behavior bumpy. Simplifying complex paperwork can significantly change people’s behaviors.

Ultimately, successful self-control depends not on having stronger willpower but on the ability to acknowledge our weaknesses and design clever systems that compensate for those weaknesses. Now it’s time to create your own Ulysses Pact so that your ‘Planner’ can defeat your ‘Doer’.


Sources
- [Thaler, R. H., & Shefrin, H. M. (1981). An Economic Theory of Self-Control.(2), 392–406.](https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830713)
#Behavioral Economics#Self-Control#New Year's Resolutions#Three-Day Wonder#Nudge

Recommended for You

2026 Economic Outlook: The Great Collision Scenario and a Guide to Wealth Relocation for Survival

2026 Economic Outlook: The Great Collision Scenario and a Guide to Wealth Relocation for Survival

8 min read
Generative AI is Transforming Education: The Era of Selling 'Results', Not Just Lectures

Generative AI is Transforming Education: The Era of Selling 'Results', Not Just Lectures

8 min read
The Real Reason Netflix Created FAST.com: The Political Economy Behind a Simple Speed Test

The Real Reason Netflix Created FAST.com: The Political Economy Behind a Simple Speed Test

5 min read

Advertisement

Comments