Rumors, Crises, and the Secret Drama in the Heart of Power
- Understand how the rumors of Xi Jinping’s ouster are generated and spread.
- Identify the realities of the severe economic and social crises currently facing China.
- Forecast the structural vulnerabilities of Xi Jinping’s one-man regime and future scenarios.
Whispers of a Coup: The Beginning of Xi Jinping’s Ouster Rumors
In September 2022, unverified rumors spread that flights to Beijing were being canceled en masse and military vehicle convoys were spotted, igniting discussions on Twitter about President Xi Jinping being ousted in a coup. Have you heard these rumors?
The origin of these Xi Jinping ouster rumors primarily came from Falun Gong-affiliated media critical of the Chinese Communist Party and anti-China YouTubers. Their sensational narratives packaged the complex Chinese politics as a simple drama of ‘power struggles,’ piquing public curiosity and leading to high view counts.
A German journalist’s satirical tweet was misreported by an Indian news channel as ’exclusive evidence of a coup,’ illustrating how uncritically these rumors are consumed.
The Chinese government’s response has always been silence and control. Instead of directly denying the rumors, the only rebuttal was to broadcast scenes of President Xi appearing at official events days later. Since the Xi Jinping era began, the decision-making process has become increasingly opaque, and high-ranking officials disappearing without explanation has become more common.
Ultimately, President Xi’s extreme secrecy creates a vacuum of information, paradoxically providing fertile ground for rumors like ‘secret coups’ to thrive.
Signs of Cracks: Pressures Fueling the Rumors
While the coup rumors themselves may be fake news, their periodic resurgence is rooted in the real crises facing Chinese society.
Empty Apartments and Unemployed Youth: The Deep Malady of China’s Economy
Today’s reality in China is that apartments bought with a lifetime of savings are left skeletal, and children from prestigious universities struggle with the worst unemployment crisis. The real estate sector, which once accounted for 30% of GDP, is in a state of collapse, and local government debt has surpassed $10 trillion.
The Xi Jinping government’s solution of expanding state-led manufacturing investments has created a new problem of ‘overproduction.’ Excess products are being dumped overseas at rock-bottom prices, escalating trade wars and increasing deflationary pressures domestically.
At the root of this issue lies President Xi’s ideological dilemma. He is wary of a ‘welfare state model’ that stimulates domestic consumption and prioritizes ’national security’ and state-owned enterprise-centered growth. Ultimately, the policy contradiction of building more factories instead of filling household pockets fuels social unrest, which in turn nourishes rumors of instability in the highest leadership.
The Blank Paper Rebellion: A Society Driven to Its Limits
In November 2022, the Urumqi apartment fire incident exploded the public’s grievances suppressed by three years of harsh ‘Zero COVID’ policies.
Protests escalated from cries for “food” to direct political slogans of “Xi Jinping step down! The Communist Party step down!”. The ‘blank paper protests,’ raising unmarked A4 sheets as a form of resistance against censorship, gained global attention.
The government surprisingly and swiftly abandoned the ‘Zero COVID’ policy, but framed it as a planned transition rather than a capitulation to protests. This incident revealed cracks in the implicit social contract of ‘sacrificing political freedom for guaranteed economic growth.’ It demonstrated that absolute power can also be vulnerable to public pressure, adding realism to the ouster rumors.
Inside the Black Box: The Drama of Xi Jinping’s Court
The greatest threat may not be external rumors, but rather internal power struggles. The most symbolic event, in my view, was Hu Jintao’s exit.
The Elder and the Red Folder: Hu Jintao’s Exit
At the closing ceremony of the 2022 Party Congress, a shocking scene unfolded as former President Hu Jintao was almost forcibly removed by two men.
While Chinese state media explained it as a ‘health issue,’ many analysts interpreted it as a deliberately staged public purge. This marked the end of the ‘collective leadership system’ and symbolically announced the beginning of Xi Jinping’s one-man rule.
The Disappeared Ministers: A System That Consumes Itself
Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defense Minister Li Shangfu, both directly appointed by President Xi, also suddenly disappeared one day. It is significant that they were all loyalists personally appointed by Xi.
The repeated disappearances of individuals he selected due to corruption allegations reveal a ‘self-defeating’ issue in Xi Jinping’s judgment and system.
| Name | Position | Incident Progress |
|---|---|---|
| Qin Gang | Foreign Minister | Disappeared in June 2023, dismissed in July. Allegations of personal misconduct, including extramarital affairs and leaking state secrets. |
| Li Shangfu | Defense Minister, Central Military Commission Member | Disappeared in August 2023, dismissed in October. Involved in procurement corruption during his tenure as head of the Equipment Development Department. |
| Li Yuchao | Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force | Dismissed and investigated around July 2023. Allegations of large-scale corruption and leaking secrets within the Rocket Force. |
| He Weidong | Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission | Disappeared from public view after late February 2025. Rumors of power struggles and removal by opposition factions within the military. |
The Xi Jinping system demands absolute loyalty, but it shows that even those who pass the loyalty test are not safe. The demand for absolute loyalty paradoxically becomes the greatest source of instability that undermines his regime from within.
At the Crossroads: Future Scenarios for China
What will happen to China in the future? Two major scenarios can be envisioned.
Scenario A: Prolonged Rule
This scenario envisions President Xi continuing his long-term rule. The core of this conception lies in the power dynamics between Premier Li Qiang, known as the ‘Emperor’s Right Hand,’ and Cai Qi, head of the Central Office.
- Li Qiang (Premier): A pro-business pragmatist managing the economy, but his authority is intentionally constrained. He could become a scapegoat in case of failure.
- Cai Qi (Head of the Central Office): Oversees the Party’s ideology and security, wielding significant power.
President Xi has designed a ‘checks and balances with Chinese Communist Party characteristics’ system by pitting these two loyalist networks against each other to ensure his prolonged rule.
Scenario B: Life After Xi Jinping – Succession Crisis
What will happen to China if President Xi disappears? He has destroyed the orderly power succession process himself. By not designating a successor, he has placed China on a ‘political succession crisis’ time bomb.
The moment he disappears, it is almost inevitable that the factions he nurtured and pitted against each other will engage in fierce struggles for the ‘Throne of the Dragon.’ This foreshadows unpredictable chaos.
Conclusion
All these analyses culminate in one grand paradox. Xi Jinping’s power consolidation measures are, in fact, destroying the stability of the Chinese system.
- Key Point 1: The rumors of Xi’s ouster are baseless, but China’s severe economic and social crises are the nutrients for these rumors.
- Key Point 2: The greatest threat is not external but internal power struggles, and a system that demands loyalty amplifies internal unrest.
- Key Point 3: The personalization of Xi’s power effectively reserves extreme power struggles and systemic crises for after his disappearance.
Today’s stability, by his own design, inevitably bears the seeds of an unstable tomorrow. How about thinking more deeply about China’s future and continuously monitoring related news?