Two Stages, One Actor

Two Stages, One Actor

Approval decline on the Iran stage runs parallel to a pivot toward the North Korea stage

Trump Approval Rating (Iran War Period)
45%Feb 2026 — pre-war baseline
37%Jul 2026 — war passes 5 months
33%Aug 2026 — record low
Feb 28, 2026
US and Israel strike Iran; Hormuz Strait blockade begins, disrupting ~20% of global oil flow
Aug 17-19, 2026
Trump orders drill cuts with Korea, then names North Korea's "57 nuclear weapons" directly
Nov 2026
US midterm elections — 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats at stake

Sources: Reuters/Ipsos polling, Aug 2026; Korean press reporting on North Korea outreach, Aug 2026