Why a single interest rate hike splits into two directions
The moment the BOJ raises interest rates, the bond, foreign exchange, and stock markets are shaken simultaneously
BOJ interest rate hike (announced or implemented)
↓
① Bond market path
Existing low-interest government bond price decline → Increased valuation losses (BOJ, banks, life insurers)
② Foreign exchange and capital path
Yen appreciation → Carry trade liquidation (Yen buying + overseas asset selling)
↓
Increased global stock market volatility + increased fiscal interest burden