Results of comparing the four risks seen in the video with official data from the BIS, ECB, and Federal Reserve. As of October 2026.
Risk 1
Loss of seigniorage
If cash moves to coins, the U.S. loses interest-free funding
Verified evidence
According to Fed statistics, cash in circulation is about $2.4 trillion. The $100 trillion in the video is a base error
Risk 2
Concentration in short-term instruments and rollover
Treasury issuance is concentrated in short-term instruments, increasing rollover risk
Verified evidence
BIS research measures the impact of 3-month interest rates. Could not find figures for maturity structure risk
Risk 3
Contraction of bank credit creation
Bank deposits are withdrawn, reducing lending capacity
Verified evidence
The U.S. Treasury Advisory Committee diagnosed about $6.6 trillion in transactional deposits as potential outflow risks. ECB and BIS are in the same direction
Risk 4
Fire sale of government bonds
During a crisis, issuers sell government bonds rapidly, shaking the market
Verified evidence
BIS estimates that outflow shocks are 2-3 times the inflow. No figures at the level of government bond market collapse
Solid badges indicate verified parts, outline badges indicate parts where limitations or assumptions remain. Orange markings indicate items with numerical errors.