BIS Working Paper 1270

Even at the same scale, outflows move interest rates 2–3 times more than inflows

This is the 3-month US Treasury yield response to a capital movement of approximately $3.5 billion (2 standard deviations).

Inflow, normal times with sufficient Treasury supply: yield decline

2–2.5bp

Outflow, normal times: yield rise (2–3 times that of inflow)

Approximately 4–7.5bp

Inflow, periods of insufficient Treasury supply: yield decline

5–8bp

The bar length is based on a maximum of 8bp. The February 2026 revised edition suggests an inflow effect of 2.5–3.5bp during normal times. There was almost no spillover to long-term maturities. Source: BIS Working Papers No 1270.