South Korea's Economic Exposure: Oil Dependency and War Impact
Korea Energy Risk · 2026 War Exposure
South Korea's Economic Exposure: Oil Dependency & War Impact
Structural vulnerability and projected macro impact under the US–Iran conflict scenario
Korea Crude Oil Import Sources (pre-war baseline)
Middle East (incl. Iran region) 70%+
Americas (USA, Canada) 13%
Russia / Central Asia 9%
Africa 5%
Other 3%
Stranded at Hormuz — War Outbreak (Feb 2026)
7 Korean tankers · ~14M barrels
Equivalent to entire daily domestic household consumption, stranded by Strait closure in first week
⚠️
Over 70% of Korea's oil imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz. Any closure triggers immediate refinery and manufacturing capacity alerts nationwide.
Projected Macro Impact: Baseline vs War Scenario
GDP Growth Rate
Baseline (pre-war)
+1.8%
War scenario
~+1.0%
GDP Growth Rate Change
War impact
−0.8pp
Consumer Price Inflation
Baseline (pre-war)
+2.1%
War scenario
+5.0%
Inflation Impact (war-induced addition)
War impact
+2.9pp
Stagflation Risk Assessment
HIGH
Growth falling below 1.0% while inflation exceeds 4.0% satisfies the technical definition of stagflation — simultaneously worst for consumers and policymakers.
Sources: Bank of Korea; Korea Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy; Korea National Oil Corporation; IMF Regional Economic Outlook · Figures are projections based on war-scenario modeling