NVIDIA's 3-stage circular finance, the path where risk has shifted
The loop is the same. What has changed is the timing of cash outflows and the entity bearing the risk.
2025 ~ early 2026
① Equity investment
Content OpenAI letter of intent for up to $100 billion → $30 billion equity investment
Cash Expenditure immediately after contract
Risk NVIDIA bears the decline in equity value
August 2026
② Lease guarantee
Content Ohio 4.25GW campus, $105 billion cap
Cash Only if OpenAI cannot pay rent
Risk Can be billed all at once during an AI demand slowdown
August-September 2026
③ External capital/insurance
Content $500 billion+ platform with large asset managers, GPU-collateralized loan discussions with insurers
Cash Money outside of NVIDIA
Risk Distributed into the financial system
Money → Name → Other people's money. NVIDIA's balance sheet becomes lighter, and risk spreads outward.
Source: NVIDIA 10-Q·8-K (2026), Fortune, CNBC, FT · As of the end of September 2026