Scenario Indicators Dashboard: Key Metrics to Watch (Jun–Dec 2026)
Post-Agreement Watch · Jun–Dec 2026
Scenario Indicators Dashboard: Key Metrics to Watch
Real-world signals that determine which post-Islamabad scenario materializes
📈
Scenario A: Stabilization
Geneva signing holds · 60-day nuclear talks succeed · Iran receives sanctions relief · Israel restrains
⚠️
Scenario B: Collapse
Sanctions release stalls · Iran imposes Hormuz transit fees · Israel launches independent strikes
🛢️ WTI Crude Oil ($/barrel)
Current (post-MOU) ~$88
Scenario A $70–80
Scenario B $125–130+
📊 US CPI (annual %)
Pre-war forecast 2.8%
Scenario A <3.0%
Scenario B 4.8%+
🏦 Fed Funds Rate (year-end)
Current 5.25–5.50%
Scenario A 4.75–5.00%
Scenario B Hold / raise
💱 KRW / USD Exchange Rate
War peak ~1,540+
Scenario A 1,330–1,370
Scenario B 1,500+
☢️ Iran Nuclear Talks
Geneva signed Jun 19
Scenario A Deal by Aug
Scenario B Breakdown
🎯 Israel Military Activity
Post-MOU stance Hostile
Scenario A Restrained
Scenario B Strikes resume
Critical Tripwires to Monitor
$12B asset release: does it actually execute within 30 days?
Hormuz: does Iran attempt to impose transit fees on commercial vessels?
60-day clock: do nuclear technical negotiations begin on schedule?
Israel: does Netanyahu government survive domestic political pressure?
Hezbollah: any resumed rocket attacks from Lebanon?
Iran hardliners: does IRGC accept or undermine MOU terms?
Sources: Bloomberg; Reuters; IMF; US Energy Information Administration; Bank of Korea · All scenario values are projections, not guarantees · "Current" reflects post-MOU announcement levels as of mid-June 2026